Why People Overestimate Small Probabilities?

Consuming experience: Why affective forecasters overestimate comparative value

In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or institutional repository. Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier's archiving and manuscript policies are encouraged to visit: a b s t r a c t a r t i c l e i n f o The hedonic value of an outcome can be influenced by the alternatives to which it is c...

Probabilistic reasoning and clinical decision-making: do doctors overestimate diagnostic probabilities?

BACKGROUND The "threshold approach" is based on a physician's assessment of the likelihood of a disease expressed as a probability. The use of Bayes' theorem to calculate disease probability in patients with and without a particular characteristic, may be hampered by the presence of subadditivity (i.e. the sum of probabilities concerning a single case scenario exceeding 100%). AIM To assess t...

Why people self-verify.

Why do people choose interaction partners who see them as they see themselves? Self-verification theorists propose that a desire to bolster perceptions of predictability and control underlies such activities. In contrast, advocates of positivity strivings argue that people choose such interaction partners in the hope of making themselves feel good. Two studies tested these competing explanation...

Why People Think

This paper is a Critical examination of the fundamental role thinking plays in human life. The theory presented here is derived from my previously published Critical theory of the phenomenon of mind 1 . An understanding of that theory is propaedeutic for the arguments and deductions presented in the present treatise. A glossary of technical terminology used here is available. 2 By analogy with ...

Why make people patients?